taking advantage of players body language/ backing low odds/ new experiences / free time section

Hello traders,

Murray won in Cincinnatti playing a great tennis, congratulations,  but the topic that i would like to talk about its body language. The Cincinnati final was just one case where we could take advantage of body language where we saw djokovic really tired. There are players that usually do a lot of bad body language but they still play well. But for Djokovic is another history. In this case, i saw Djokovic with a very bad face in the end of first set and i stayed with my position in Murray. That is why its important to take notes everyday and build a profile for each player and this way we will be able to take advantage of these situations.

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Today i would like to talk about one of the most common errors that new traders do in tennis.
Backing an inconsistent position at very low odds. You have to be careful, especially in the weeks before grand slams where players rest more and dont put 100 % most of times. My opinion is that you can back every price as long as it has value for you, but you cant back for a long time at least weak positions like this for example:

In the third set the underdog breaks and leads 3.1 and she is now @ 1.28
First of all its third set and if you are starting trading its better to avoid third sets
Second, The underdog has 3 games left to won the set. In three games she will have problems at least in one or two if the dog is a decent player. What i want to tell you is that you have to be careful backing low prices in an inconsistent market.

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New experiences

I am using Bet Angel lately. Its a great software and have some good functions for my football strategies. I am doing more football trading lately and the software really helps in some automatic functions. For tennis the software is decent but in my opinion there are a lot of things to improve for tennis trading. I prefer this software rather then geeks toy because it has not so many windows and it has some automatic functions like i said before. Some people prefer Geeks for the multiple windows. I am studing more football markets and in the future i may post something about it.

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Free time section

Music

In the last weekend, saturday, was at the disco and dj started to play old Linkin Park music. I'm a big fan of their work. Always good to remember those songs.

Linkin Park Youtube

http://www.youtube.com/artist/Linkin_Park?feature=watch_video_title

Movie


I watched "Captain America" one of these days but didnt like it. The trailer was very good but i think the movie doesnt have a  lot of action in some parts. For example when they discover the dark side factories and want to conquer them, they summarize it a lot.

I dont have any idea for this week movie but i checked imdb top 250 for a movie that i watched and liked.
(http://www.imdb.com/chart/top)

This one is very very good.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0253474/

The Pianist


"A Polish Jewish musician struggles to survive the destruction of the Warsaw ghetto of World War II."

good trades
r9
babypuntz@gmail.com

One way to choose tennis matches

Today i started giving some opinions before the matches to my two students and i think it can be a good post for the blog. Why? It basically describes one way of choosing matches to trade or bet.

My opinions were:

Mardy Fish v Richard Gasquet

If Mardy plays like he usually does i think he deservs a back from start @ 1.49. He played very well against Novak and he is playing very well. I dont think that he is tired.

David Ferrer v Gilles Simon

Ferrer can have some problems because he hasnt played a lot of Hard Court matches lately but he is very good.

Andrea Petkovic v Petra Kvitova

Kvitova is playing really bad lately. Petko won her 

2011-08-11

Rogers Cup (W)

Andrea Petkovic

Hard

2:0 » 6:1, 6:2

and i think it can be a similar result if Kvitova plays with the same motivation.

 Roger Federer v James Blake

Federer @ 1.13 looks value. He is playing very well so far.

Ok, lets start with the basic question.

Why did i choose these matches? I looked at betfair tennis page and i try to choose the most predictable matches. There are days were you have a lot of matches and you dont know which one to trade? Choose the one you think that is more predictable for you. Im sure you know some players better then others ,so, take advantage of it.

This advice is simple yet powerful. 

good trades 

r9

Gift to the readers

Uploaded two tricks to the students page.
One trick for guessing the break strategies.
If you liked the trick thank me with comments.

                                                                     PDF


good trades
r9

Moment of the week?

Andy Roddick against Philipp Kohlschreiber - ATP Masters Cincinnati 2011
Who layed roddick after missing a lot of bps in the third set? ;P

Questions & answers/ access babypuntz-students.blogspot.com / Real x Barça

Why do you think most traders fail?
- They use big risks and often dont follow money management rules.

Do you think that strategy is a big part of trading success?
- Of course you will need a profitable strategy to win in the long term but you need to get disciplined first and then think more in strategies.

What is you advice for people starting trading?
- Dont use more then 2,5% of the bank in risk in one match and taking it easy because trading is just like any other business where you have to learn before you do better things. You need education. I would say that you need at least two years to become good.

What is your favorite trading phrase?
- Cant remember the name of the person that said it but was: " You choose your results by choosing a risk, the more risk you use the more volatile the results will be". That phrase changed my trading perspective more then one year ago.

What is your trading style in tennis?
- I know players and players patterns very well and take advantage of it. Sometimes i use strategies and sometimes i dont.

What are your favorite sports?
- Basket(nba)/Football/tennis

Did you play any of these sports?
- Tennis


Just some of the questions that i normally answer. If you have any kind of question email me like many people do and i will answer it. Email: babypuntz@gmail.com

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I would like to give the opportunity to readers to access my students page without the need to take the full month so i will give the access to the readers that donate at least 40 € to the blog. In my opinion the value is in the live classes and all month support but i think that that page can help a lot too.

Two more pdfs coming out today.

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Real Madrid x Barça
Great match. Although im a Madrid fan i think Barça deserved because they didnt wasted a lot of very good ops like Real did.


Good trades
r9

Working on the new blogs...

3 am
Have been working on the new blogs after Blake match. Time to go to bed . A lot of work but i think the final result will be nice. There are a lot of things to add tomorrow.
Just a quick picture from what i added for now to the students' blog.

good trades
r9

education is essencial / football / new times new ideas / free time section / gift to the readers

Hello traders,

Consistent tournaments are back. Results have been very good and consistent these days. Have been working with two students and so far i think they have evolved a lot and are much close to the consistency road but there is much left. We have very different trading styles but all work very well, the important thing is that you feel comfortable with your trading. In my opinion the best thing that i teached them is to take very low bank risk and taking it easy following the stake plan that i gave them. I think that the value of the classes is having someone like me pressuring always to have low risk and respect rules because one day your mind understands the benefits and changes. Taking classes and trading education is essencial because you learn so many things and get new ideias that can help developing your trading. I am sure my students have new ideias and new perspectives. What i want so say in here is not to take my classes but to say to you that if you want to take trading to the next level and you have no ideas take some trading courses to get new ideas and to have people helping you achieving consistency.
For people starting trading now i recommend Tradeshark tennis guide.

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Premier league started. Man Utd has a great team this year. In my opinion Chelsea will be the disappointment of the season. Just my opinion. I have been studing a lot of football lately and trying to get info on how to read football matches. There are some great portuguese traders that have some good info and in the future i hope i can help more my students in football. Im going to do more football from now on because the markets have more liquidity and we can take trading to other level.

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New times new ideas

I have been thinking in a way to give students and traders that donate more info but in a different way. Not by mail. So i decided to create 3 more blogs with permissions to that traders.

I have now one multimedia blog for students that will have videos from mine tradings and studies:
http://babypuntz-multimedia.blogspot.com/

Students spot with all the material that i teached them:
http://babypuntz-students.blogspot.com/

and a place for the people that donate and students with some ideas for trading.
http://babypuntz-ideas.blogspot.com/

In the future i want a website for all these things but for now i think its enough and organized.

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Free time section

A lot of people is saying that "Super 8" is a really great movie. So, it's in my "to watch" list.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1650062/

"After witnessing a mysterious train crash, a group of friends in the summer of 1979 begin noticing strange happenings going around in their small town, and begin to investigate into the creepy phenomenon."

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Near 9k readers in 4/5 months its a very good mark.
I would like to thank the readers.

One of my strategies:

http://depositfiles.com/files/dplnovr

Dont use it in all matches because you will lose. Its like someone give you backing the serv strategy and you start backing everytime serv. You will lose. You have to be careful choosing the player in order to win.


Good trades/holidays

r9
babypuntz@gmail.com

trading days are back

motivation.. check
money management... check
discipline... check

Lets trade!

you can find me in TS chat
students can find me in skype or email anytime

good trades
r9

small holidays

I have been away these last days because im taking a short holidays. My recommendation of the week is to visit the place where im going tomorrow for the second time, if you have the chance to do it one day :

Lago Sanabria (Spain)

good trades

r9

babypuntz@gmail.com

One strategy that may help some people to combat greed/ tennis consistency

just a quick post

This strategy is one of some that i gave to my students. I'm posting it here because i think that it may help some people that want to control greed and build a good bank in a relaxed way.

It's simple:

"Ok, a lot of times traders focus too much on the money because they are looking at their betfair bank all the time and that is very dangerous because makes you greedy. One of my strategies to think in the long term is to " dont know how much money you have in you betfair bank", only being aware if you are profitable or not. Try it for one day and you will see your trading improving A LOT." I use this strategy everyday.

There are other strategies available for readers that make donations to the blog.

Tennis matches are getting more consistent these days and that's very good news. Consistent matches = very good results.

comments are welcome

good trades

r9