Exit point when laying/Nba finals/Free time

Hello,  today i would like to talk about exit points when we lay low odds. I had the idea to write about this topic cause today when i was talking in Ts' chatroom someone that layed low odds said that he shouldnt wait for the break but he waited and lost one good op to get a very good profit cause the player didnt break.

Imagine the favourite wins the first set and you are confident that the non fav has some chances of winning the second.

The non fav starts serving in the second and we lay the fav @ 1.16 (for ex)
He wins the serv game and we are almost sure he will have a break op in the fav serv game.
He gets 15.40 and fav odd reaches 1,4. The idea here is to show you that there isnt value in waiting for the break in the long term.

if you think for example that the non fav has a chance to win the match and you put all the profit in him and lets say if the non fav breaks the fav odd would get 1,5.

So you will risk 599 euros in the non fav just to win more 80 with the break? Whats the value in that? This is just one example of many. There are good points to exit 0.15 0.30 for example. Its just a question of measuring your confidence in the player and choose the right one. Every match is different. This is just an intro to this topic. Do your homework and get better.

And if you say waiting for the break has a lot of value cause then you will stay with the the non fav in his serv game to get 3.0 in the second set and get a huge swing ill respect but ill say to you that there are many favs that comeback in the second set and that in the long term you will probably not profit the same i will and you will get exposed more time = more trouble can come. Im starting to have 2k responsabilities lately. If u had 2k responsability what would you choose?  You would not play with a lot of risk. Thats the right choice.


Nba finalssss!!! King James !! Dirk Nowitzki. 30 minutes left to the first game. In my opinion Miami will win the Finals but i saw some god mode performances from Dirk and Dallas has a very good bench. Will not be easy. Enjoy it!

Video: Epic comeback from Miami heat to win the series against the bulls.

Free time section for this week

I would like to watch the Hangover part II. I watched the first one and liked a lot. Im honest, its not one of those epic movies but its very entertaining. I expect the same for the second and the imdb's rate for it is 7.1/10, its very good.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1411697/

"Right after the bachelor party in Las Vegas, Phil, Stu, Alan, and Doug jet to Thailand for Stu's wedding. Stu's plan for a subdued pre-wedding brunch, however, goes seriously awry."

Hope you liked to read this post.
Comments would be very welcome.

r9
babypuntz@gmail.com

Kings/Fast and furious 5

Hello,

Great tennis in madrid open. Im expecting a great Roland Garros. I hope Del Potro gets healthy in time.
This week's post i would like to talk about kings. Nadal is the clay's king but he lost to Djokovic. Djokovic is in a very good run and heading to #1. The match was great and there was a lot of value in the game, especially near the end of the first set when the market was believing a lot in a nadal's comeback but Djoko was consistent. The between-leg-lob point from Nadal was huge.


 On the other hand there is king James in the nba that made a spectacular performance @ boston  against the celtics and miami is now leading 3-1 in the series. In the other game the thunder team came from the dead to win the game. Memphis was dominating and with a good lead but lost it and wasted a good op. That is the difference between the good teams and the best teams. They cant waste ops like that.

Today i would like to recommend the new fast and furious' movie. This one is my favourite from all the fast and furious' movies. How would i describe it? Girls, great cars, action, scenarios in the slums of Rio de janeiro, Brazil. Basically its 130 minutes of entertainment.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1596343/

good trades

r9

Important tip for tennis/nba/Great tv episodes to watch

Hello,

Today i would like to share one important rule in my trading:

"Never wait for the second break"


I dont care if im laying or backing, i simply never wait for the second break. To me its a very important rule cause if you dont follow it you can get in a very greedy situation. You will want to earn a lot but in the end you can not profit from it. Its a sinple rule, so try it and you will get better results in the long term. There are exceptions of course.

Example:
I enter in a 15.40. The player breaks and i think he has a got a good % for being sucessful in his serv game so ill wait for his service game. He wins it. I close with the profit in the player leading and hedge in the final of the set. There are other scenarios. I dont wait with the position open expecting other break that probably will not happen.

Great playoffs in the nba!! Who would imagine dallas leading 2-0 against the lakers ?? The signs were there. In the other side Lebron James and Wade were on fire and are now are leading 2-0 against the celtics. Thunders against memphis will be very interesting to watch and atlanta will face a difficult time against the bulls unless rose's injury gets worse or they shoot more then 50% succesful  most of the nights.

If you are looking for great tv series to watch, i would like to recommend you one.
The Tv serie's name is "The walking dead" and here is the a small summary:
"Police officer Rick Grimes leads a group of survivors in a world overrun by zombies."
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1520211/

Good trades

r9

Value trading vs "normal" trading/ Good movie

Hello,
In the last days ive been apllying value trading in tennis that i learned with RC's classes
(http://tradingtennis.blogspot.com/) one year ago  and i like the results.
I explained in the last post that the reason for never tried this style was cause of my small knowledge of the tennis market at the time and having a small experience, which is required to have success.  I played tennis for some years and knew a lot about atp, wta. But didnt know about the attitudes, injuries, motivations from players that affect the markets everyday.
For normal trading i mean, for example, backing a serv game or enter in a 15.40 to close after the break.
(Very good tennis guide to start http://www.blog.tradesharktennis.com/)
The trading styles are very different but in the end both are succesful in the long term if you have the right strategies and discipline to follow it.

Advantages of value trading:
- You can win more that what you risk.
- There are certain moments that you can get profit and the points are not being played.
- In my opinion it avoids overtrading that happens a lot in "normal trading" (ill explain later) and requires patience that in my opinion is one advantage. Patience is essencial.

And as disavantages:
- Inconsistent results. With the strategy that i use i can have a very good day or a day with some losses( for more info check RC's blog) Two great days so far, but dont expect it to be like that every day.
- Requires more knowledge of the market and the players then normal trading.

Advantages of normal trading:
- consistent results
- doesnt require as much knowledge as in the value trading style, but requires some.

And as disavantages:
- Leads many times to overtrading .

So, these are the best and worst qualities of both styles. What am i going to do from now on? I'm going to use the best things from both. Use "normal trading" for the first set and use "value trading" for the second. Get the best from both. This way i can look for days with more consistency with the opportunity to get the best from value trading. My trading style in the past was basically like this, but in the past i would trade in the second set with my profit, and not by risking some € from the trading bank.

I'll not explain the strategies that i use in here cause i respect the authors, so if you want to learn more about both you can trade with me, or just visit the blogs that i posted and learn with great traders.

The image i posted is not random. In the topic title there is a "x" vs "y" so its like a boxing combat. I watched a very good film so i want to share with you if you are looking for a great movie to watch. The image is from that movie. The movie's name is "the fighter" and if you like a movie with a good storyline and fantastic performances from the cast this is one of those. The trailer:

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0964517/

Remember,
Education is essential in order to have success.

Hope you liked the post
Any question email me or comment

r9

Recording your trading sessions/value trading in tennis/nba (tip) / contest

Hello,

some time since the last post. I prefer to write quality topics over quantity and usually write when i got some idea. Two weeks ago i started video recording my trades and i can see already an improvment in my trading. Its very useful cause you can review later your trades and catch your errors easily. I use camtasia. I decided to write about this topic cause today i traded one game where i overtraded a bit, and could have finish the game with a 100% profit. I finished with 20% and i decided that later i would review this game's trades and try to improve. One of my biggest mistakes was trusting a lot in low ranked wta players. Yes, that is very risky.

Lately i've been doing some research in value trading in tennis. I had some value trading classes in the past from one great trader, but it required a great knowledge about the players and required many games to start doing it well, that i didnt have in the past. Lately i've been checking my results and i am very good reading 2nd sets. And normally there is a lot of value in that set, so my goal for this month, from today for one month is just to trade with value. It will be good for me as a trader cause it will require patience and a lot of discipline. I'll do updates about this subject.

Nba's playoffs. What can i say about that? crazy. I am loving watching and trading those games. I've noticed that there is normally a lot of value in the begin of the third quarter cause there is some overreaction if a team is some point up and the game has more then 20 minutes to be played so good profits can come from a good analysis at this point.

Nba tip- Hornets @ Lakers. If you see that Kobe is not playing well cause of the recent injury(struggling shooting and moving in the court), back hornets +10,5. Dont back too early in the game cause you will be exposed and will not get much value.

I'm planning to do a contest in the future. Stay tuned.

r9

Top Ten Plays of the Regular Season/Tennis tip

Hello, great games in the first round games of the nba's playoffs. Watched chicago game and hornets game against lakers. Crazy games. D-Rose is playing great basketball but CP3 performance against the lakers must be one of his best performances ever in his career.

Here are some of the most spectacular plays of the regular season. My favourites are Nick Young ball (#7) and a huge block by Javale McGee (#8). In my opinion Blake griffin is very overrated. The boy can dunk but i saw numerous things more spectacular this regular season.

A lot of games are coming in tennis. My advice is : don't overtrade and dont trade more then one game in the same period. If you are starting trading you will think: " If i trade more games at the same time i can earn more". Yes you can, but you can lose too. Just focus in one game and you will see better results.

Good trading week

r9

The playoffs are coming soon!/More info about trading classes.

Hello guys,
playoffs game are coming, so its a good time to talk about trading/betting in basket. Basketball games are very exciting and can give a good profit. A team that is 20 points up can lose the game, a team with 7 points down with only 1 minute in the clock can win the game. This happens a lot of times, and in the regular season  if you study carefully the teams you can get a lot of value. One case is for example two rival cities, where the team 1 is one of the best teams in the league and is going to play in the team2 stadium and cause of the rivalry the best team can have a difficult time so we can get a very good price to lay, for example. What do i normally do in basketball? Unlike football and tennis i dont have a clear strategy for basketball, i just read the game and search for valueable opportunities. There are cases where you can get some value for example:
- substitutions (5 players playing, different from the 5 starting) Having an idea of the bench's quality in both teams.
- The best player starts scoring some points. The best player of one of the teams starts scoring some points and probably will get more confident and score some more.
- Must win home games for the best team in the playoffs


Some info on trading classes:
Trading classes include two theory lessons that cover psychology( You will get one documment that i wrote to you read and study it in order to have a proper mindset ), money management, tennis game and its rules, the importance of patterns and the strategies to apply. There are 12 live classes included where i will trade with you and read the game with you, so that you can start identifying patterns,  exit stops without hesitation, avoid errors, and develop trading consistency. You will be under my orientation for one month and you will report your trades when you trade and we well discuss the errors and talk about them.
The trading class is limited to 5 people/month.

The trading class fee is 150 €.

Hope you liked to read the post.

Any questions, comment or email  to
babypuntz@gmail.com