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Very complicated match. The rule that i shared yesterday was key to prevent a big loss from happening.
Wickmayer vs Vesnina
Wickmayer started very aggressively but her service was really bad. She needs to practise that service way more. This was the easiest match to trade because i have been following Vesnina from the start of this competition.
Dodig vs Lopez
Did some trades pre match that allowed me to risk a little more. During the match just did two trades.
There was a lot of value in this match since Lopez's service was getting better each game.
Seppi vs Simon
Simon was winning most of second serv points and i was not expecting that he would allow a very passive Seppi to comeback in the first set.
Today i was planning to talk about a study case but instead i will talk about something new.
I am going to talk about a player profile for wta that is very useful in grass.
(WTA)
Have you ever experienced a player that is holding very easily and from nothing goes 0.40 in his service game? In wta is very common and can be very dangerous especially if you back low positions.
What i usually do? I usually stick to try to get in the players that play against these new young players. Especially if there are very good prices and the young players look like they are "dominating".....
Every game is a different game but in the long term this is the best option.
My advice is to be careful with young talent. Especially players that are very aggressive and make every point a one shot challenge.
A rule that i use that can be very important for you.
Don't go against the big favorite player in very critical situations. NEVER.
This rule will make you more profitable if you follow it 100%, in my opinion.
Most of times it is better to stay away or back the fav.
Reason: It's the favorite. Market will go against you very very quickly and you will not be able to recover from the loss most of times.
Fantastic game 6. I had a big profit but i did not believe it was possible for the heat to get to the overtime.
They did and won the match. The price reached 1.02.
Probably the best nba match i have ever seen.
I have a very clear plan for game 7. In my opinion the heat will win easy if they can outscore in the first quarter or second by double digits. If the spurs hold near the heat the spurs are way more consistent in the 4th quarter. Their team is more balanced than the heat and if Duncan was younger he would kill the heat very easily. Heat need some size inside but that will be difficult to get because of the luxury tax, unless there is a veteran big that wants to get a ring and joins them.
Today i bring you a study case that is very interesting for many reasons.
The first reason is that Halep was playing. One of mine core trading principles is to trade players that i know much better. Other core and very profitable principle is to trade matches from players that i am reading very well at the moment and to trade those players if they are in a very good mumentum and follow all the path of that players in the tournament.
I have been following Halep in the current wta tournament in Italy since the first match and this is one example of player that you want to follow. She was playing agressive and with consistency. In the long term, you win many many times following these players.
Let's take a look now at a third set trading example:
I was in profit already, so i was very comfortable at entering in riskier entries.
In this case, i felt in the third set that halep was a bit underpriced and that could be a consequence of her performance so far in the tournment, that like i said was very good.
Halep starts serving in the third set.
30.30
I said. "Perfect". The market can collapse right now because it is very confident in halep and because Jankovic was starting to make error after error, but if you took a closer look, in my opinion she was not caring about the points, so technically, she was resting. (that could generate problems too for Jankovic)
So in this case the graphs are perfect to show a possible collapse. In the left side of the graph the market collapses two times. So i had an indication of how many ticks i was going to win on the trade. Maybe from 2.7 to 1.6 if Jankovic breaks, and i would lose around from 2.7 to max 3.3 ticks if Halp holds.
So, what's the percentage of holding in 30.30 for Halep. 60%/40%? less?
Anyway this was a trade with huge value in my opinion. Jankovic Broke and the market collapsed like in the first half of the graph. Lucky? No. This happens a lot of times, but like i said i usually just like to enter in very risky positions when i am already in green zone. It depends in your trading style. I am comfortable with that.
Very profitable game. After that break i had to go and closed the trades for a very good profit. When i returned home i had a big surprise when i noticed that Halep won the match.
So there is another lesson to be learned here for the new traders. Close the trades when the trade does not have more value. How can i see that? If your player has to win a lot of games just to win some ticks. You must be out when that happen for value purposes, but of course, like some Top financial traders say, you must know when to break the rules but always respecting money management, that's very important too.
Free time Section
Music
Great cover
I hope you liked this post. Any questions just email or leave a comment
Today i would like to talk about something that i love, analogies. Analogies are great to explain a point very well.
Analogies
I love the boxing analogy.
Trading <> Boxing
on impatience:
Trading:
If you are impatient you will over trade and if you trade especially in volatile markets you will kill your profits and end the day with a loss. You will also lose a lot of energy.
Boxing: If you are impatient you will punch a lot and waste a lot of energy. You will be more vulnerable now (KO maybe?)
on rushing to trade after a loss to recover profits/money management:
Trading: You can blow your bank or get a very large loss.
Boxing: if you get hit(loss) by a punch, if you try to punch right after with less awareness you will be much more vulnerable to get KO'ed or get hit by a strong punch.
On following a profitable pattern is obvious too.
So think like a Boxer. Like if you are in a fight.Think about the consequences of your actions. If you are trading tennis, think fast ;P.
So, make your analogy, if you have some behavior problems in trading. It might help or not.
Philosophy
I would like to offer you two philosophies that i follow and i will try to explain them:
Practical Philosophy
Trading like a journey or a number of steps that you have to make. Imagine that you have a goal of making 10000€ in 4 months starting bank with 100€ or 200 €. Maybe you would feel a bit overwhelmed, so for example, what i usually do in my trading is to think of the journey in steps. If you don't have the skill to profit bigger amounts, make it in hard work. You can still beat everyone. Larry Bird (for the nba fans that read the blog :) ) is a great example of that. So think about it like this, can i follow my money management rules and make one euro? I bet you can. Can you do this 10 000 times? I bet you can and with time the compound effect will help you.
The same rule applies to bigger amounts. I have 30k€ and i want 100k€ and say that your average profit/loss trade is 100€. 100k-30k= 70k € > 70000 € / 100 € = 700 steps. Can you make this 700 times? It's up to you.
Mental Philosophy
"I don't mind waiting."
I don't mind waiting. You follow your rules and you get a normal 100€ loss for example, i don't care if it looks like i am more far from my objective/goal, because if i have infinite impatience i know i will achieve my objective one day, if i am following my trading plan and rules.Your objective might come much earlier or not.
I hope you like the post and if you have any questions or liked this post leave a comment
or email to babypuntz@gmail.com
Hello traders, how are you?
It's been awhile since the last post.
The idea that i will share today is very very good, but it will work, only, if you spend some time studing motivations.So, what is it?
Prizes - Money, Cars...
Most people are driven by external motivations. The key is to find situations where huge motivations/pressure are present.
A good example for that, and recent, is Djokovic, that received more than a half million dollars to play in a tournament.(Strong pressure)
A good question to ask yourself would be, How would you feel, and how would you play if someone payed more than half million dollars for your services? Yes, that's the point. Pressure, huge pressure in "most" of cases.
Weak Motivation
What if you hear in an interview that some player dreamed about a Porsche in his teenager times for example, and Prize is a Porsche + money, and the player has big chances to win the tournament? Most of times, he will give the extra effort. The small stuff are very important and can make a difference sometimes.
I bet you will be surprised with the value in some situations : )
Free time section
This book is not very old, but it is really really good. It's in my top 3 favorites. It explains in detail the power
of decisions and gives examples and solutions for some problems (bad habits). One small decision can affect every aspect of your life.
Very powerful book.
The Compound Effect, Darren Hardy
Advice: Follow his twitter and facebook too.
Quote of the week:
If you want more, you have to become more. Jim Rohn
