richard9's betfair trading blog: tennis trading strategies

Mostrar mensagens com a etiqueta tennis trading strategies. Mostrar todas as mensagens

quinta-feira, 12 de janeiro de 2012

Reading a match: Example of intuition on tennis with short term unlucky/ Guidance packages

Match:
Barthel vs Kerber

There was a possible injury for kerber so her start price was 1.86. I dont like to put money on players with " possible injuries", so i was just looking at opportunities to enter in Barthel. Barthel started very well and made the break and continued to play very well and i got a price around 1.8 in her. She was dominating and kerber was not very interested and very slow. GSlam coming ;P ? Conclusion : Barthel won 6.0 the first set and her price was at 1.16. I was near 55 % and was not going to risk it for 16 ticks with no value. When there is a 6.0 there is always the chance of retirement but kerber did not retire and she started the second set very well and solid, so i backed her with my 54 %. Kerber broke and held and i got out for near 100 %.
Kerber was holding but it was easy to notice that barthel was not very consistent at that moment but if she get the previous level she would break back probably. Intuition working. Barthel, with a break behind holds the game very well and looks like she found some consistency again. I backed her here and got out at 40.15 and she recovered to deuce and broke!! Unlucky!! I would be in +150% green but ended with 75 %.
Conclusion: i risked 20-25 % risking the profit in good opportunities with the probability in my side in my opinion.

Tips:
In a dangerous match like this with a possible injury trade from second set with profits only and avoid third set.
Avoid entering in an "injured" player and look for ops on the other player.

---

The traders that emailed me for guidance packages and i said that we can start in the middle of this month, can start emailing me again if you are interested to start planning your journey. I will just guide three students max because it requires a lot of effort.

r9

Tennis trading session (case study) / Trading tip / Students

Hello traders, Yesterday i was trading Ebden vs Baghdatis. Baghadatis looked very fat and and ebden looked very consistent on the first games. We all said that Bag price was very low @ +-1.44 (cant remeber the price) but because we are in the beginning of the season, its better to wait some games to see players' performance. Wait for a good entry. Ebden broke and he had one game left to complete the set. We are all +- with 30% and i decided to stay and the students asked me why i would do that? Why to risk 30 % thinking in the second set? Well, in my opinion it was a good trading opportunity to stay for the second set and see player's performance because like i said Bag looked out of form and fat and Ebden was with great stats. I told my students to leave the match because they look for more consistent profits since they are learning and i was a bit more agressive. Conclusion: Ebden let Bag have 3 bps on the last game with 100% and 75 % stats and then Ebden saved them all and hold for the set. I got out at break point for a very small red. Conclusion: Frustration ? No, in the long term i will be in profit because i was looking for a profit of +100% and in my opinion the probability was on my side considering the indicators. It's not a question of greed, it's just watching very good opportunities considering the indicators. Bag went to win the match but had to work a lot and it was not easy.
So some things you can try to develop:

- Follow your intuition but only when you have very good chances, not simple chances. Dont follow it many times while learning. Be careful risking money in this trading style, because you can get frustrated losing money, if so you have to work on that and take more consistent profits and risk less.
- Be agressive with greens and play safe with reds.
- Check stats.
- Dont get frustrated with short term unlucky.
- Leave unpredictable matches.

----------------------------

Trading tip

If you already have a very good day, trade with lower stakes. You will be tired in the end of the day and your focus will not be the same so its better to lower stakes if you already have a great day and you if dont feel 100 % but want to continue trading (trading after work for example).

---------------------------

I am very happy that the special offer allowed a lot of people to be a member of students blog and for the readers interested email me to babypuntz@gmail.com if you have questions or add me on skype like many readers did.
If you have questions about tennis and other sports feel free to email too.

good trades
r9

segunda-feira, 24 de outubro de 2011

Backing big favs?/ Classes info/ free time section

Hello traders,

one week ago i was in ts chatroom and i said i was going to back a very big favorite and someone in the chat asked me and was a bit confused if there was value on doing it in the long term. The answer to this question is simple. It has as long as you have a predetermined exit for the trade. Its is possible to profit in long term going in big fav games.
Imagine that you have a player with a odd of 1.25. If i know that the probability of reaching 1.15 is bigger that reaching 1.35, we can take advantage of it and build a simple systems. This is just one idea ;P
Every match is different and its important to build indicators. The price is not enough. Of course you will want to back a good and consistent player, an example of an indicator.

Have some people interested in trading classes and would like to share some info about trading classes. I just can give trading classes till the end of November because i will have exams in mid December and January. My idea is to gather 3 students max. Its very nice to learn with other students because you can become good trading partners and help each other motivate every time. I started classes some months ago and i think the result so far is very nice and i learned a lot teaching too because i have my trading style and i learned other student's style and tried to help them a lot. I hope they are still following the money management rules ;P because if they arent i will email them all the time complaining and try to change their minds. This is a big project that has been evolving and will try to improve it every time i can.

Some pics about the project:

babypuntz-students