Roland Garros Sensation / Reading a tennis match section

Hello traders,

what a great Roland Garros. Trading is going very very well.
This Roland Garros edition has some big surprises like David Goffin.

(from atpworldtour.com)

 David Goffin, who defeated Poland’s Lukasz Kubot 7-6(4), 7-5, 6-1 to become just the seventh lucky loser - and first since countryman Dick Norman in 1995 at Wimbledon - to reach the Round of 16 at a major.

"Now I'm playing against Roger, and I can't believe it," said Goffin. "When I was young I had a lot of picture in my bedroom of him. I will prepare this match like every match. We will see. I will give all my best in two days."

Goffin had been elevated into the main draw when Frenchman Gael Monfils withdrew with a knee injury, and impressed on his Grand Slam debut with five-sets wins over Radek Stepanek and Arnaud Clement in the first two rounds - also his first two tour-level wins on clay.

"I'm feeling good, really good," he said. "First time in the main draw of a Grand Slam. I had three matches. I had nothing to lose. I wasn't the favourite, but I played my best tennis. Today it was three sets, three not perfect sets, but I was playing really good today. I'm really happy to win."

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Reading a match section

I would like to talk about something very important in this match ( Goffin against Kubot )

Kubot was getting very angry with the crowd and it was easy to notice that, and he started to do unforced error after unforced error and the crowd was always putting pressure in him. In my opinion i expected way more from Kubot but he just showed that he is mentally weak. 

I got in kubot ladder sometimes to try to catch a comeback after a possible "injury" in Goffin's hand but kubot was getting more and more frustrated. So, Goffin breaks back in the second set and for me it was the perfect moment to enter in him. Why? Kubot was getting very frustrated and his game was not going in, crowd was putting a lot of pressure in him and Goffin was handling pressure very well. I stayed with the position open till the end. Kubot body language was telling that he was not caring much and 20 ticks for a set with 2-0 in sets is value in this situation. 

 The price was very good, but unfortunately i was using very small stakes because in my opinion was a very risky situation,  because of Goffin's experience. (Rules are rules)

Conclusion:
- in smaller courts, crowd can be a big part of success
- Body language is a great indicator because its a natural consequence of attitude
- Lower your stakes in risky situations. ( i am using 2k stakes at the moment, and in this situation i used 200 €)

good trades 

r9

Improvements for a better trading (focus, intensity)

Hello traders, how are you?

Today i would like to give a quick tip about something that helped me to trade better and to keep a good focus and intensity during the day. You will think that the idea is crazy but it helped me a lot. 

I used to have a very comfortable chair, a very expensive one, and i thought it was very good for me, but it wasn't. I can be 50 % more productive with a cheap chair as long as it is good for your back and its not very very comfortable the way you would not sleep. One thing that i learned some time ago is that one of the ways to change your mental state is the way you use your body physically. For example. That expensive and very comfortable chair made me very comfortable, so, i would have a very comfortable mental state, and my attention would be in "comfortable mode", rather than "alert mode".

For the people that say, "oh you need a very good chair that is very very comfortable because you will have back pain sooner or later" i would recommend doing more physical exercise that includes back exercises. One hour/day at least. 

Good trades guys and try the idea.

r9

Trading times/Tennis trading tips/Horse racing tips/ Free time section

Hello guys, How are you?
I have been very busy lately and thats why i rarely post something new.

There is a lot of people that asks me if i continue trading in tennis? Of course i still trade in tennis but not as many matches like some years ago. Lately i have been doing 2 to 3 matches/day, normally the ones with more money and using normally 4 digit stakes. The reason i do this is because at the moment i can profit more in horses in less time and the risk is very small. A normal tennis match can last > 1 hour, and there is a horse race every ten minutes for +- 4 hours and liquidity is not a problem.

Tennis trading tips (common errors that i see)

I see a lot of people trading regular atp/wta tournaments with the same style of grandslams' trading and thats a big error because the conditions are very different. The same for men and women trading.

Another important tip. 15.40 is not as profitable as some years ago because markets changed (more money and knowledge), so dont enter in every 15.40 and create indicators.


pre live Horse racing tip

the less time until beginning, the swing is stronger. invaluable advice.


Who wants a free time section ? :D


Free time section

Movies
It's a different movie, different style, but i enjoyed it.


Martin, a mercenary, is sent from Europe by a mysterious biotech company to the Tasmanian wilderness on a hunt for the last Tasmanian tiger.

Series


Best tv serie so far in my opinion

Game of thrones

Seven noble families fight for control of the mythical land of Westeros.

MUSIC/YOUTUBE VIDEOS


This video is top! If you are a nba fan you will know its meaning LOL

Great music from gemini. Increase the volume ;P

good trades
if you want to talk with me add me on skype
or email me
r9

Trading tips

Hello guys, good day today so far, and today i would like to motivate you to try new sports. One of the best things that i can recommend you is to try all the markets and see what works for you. I just traded tennis on the first year and it was a very bad decision. The moment i tried new markets i had a lot of good ideas. Try everything!
The other tip is about choosing the match that is more predictable to you. I was talking to one trader the other day and he was asking me why i was not going to trade a tennis match at some moment and i said, i will not trade because there is a very predictable nba match with decent liquidity, so more predictable = better, at least for my trading style. Whats your opinion? Comments are welcome ;P

Horses results today, nba and tennis coming later. Good trades

r9

Reading a match: Example of intuition on tennis with short term unlucky/ Guidance packages

Match:
Barthel vs Kerber

There was a possible injury for kerber so her start price was 1.86. I dont like to put money on players with " possible injuries", so i was just looking at opportunities to enter in Barthel. Barthel started very well and made the break and continued to play very well and i got a price around 1.8 in her. She was dominating and kerber was not very interested and very slow. GSlam coming ;P ?  Conclusion : Barthel won 6.0 the first set and her price was at 1.16. I was near 55 % and was not going to risk it for 16 ticks with no value. When there is a 6.0 there is always the chance of retirement but kerber did not retire and she started the second set very well and solid, so i backed her with my 54 %. Kerber broke and held and i got out for near 100 %.
Kerber was holding but it was easy to notice that barthel was not very consistent at that moment but if she get the previous level she would break back probably. Intuition working. Barthel, with a break behind holds the game very well and looks like she found some consistency again. I backed her here and got out at 40.15 and she recovered to deuce and broke!! Unlucky!! I would be in +150% green but ended with 75 %.
Conclusion: i risked 20-25 % risking the profit in good opportunities with the probability in my side in my opinion.

Tips:
In a dangerous match like this with a possible injury trade from second set with profits only and avoid third set.
Avoid entering in an "injured" player and look for ops on the other player.

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The traders that emailed me for guidance packages and i said that we can start in the middle of this month, can start emailing me again if you are interested to start planning your journey. I will just guide three students max because it requires a lot of effort.


r9

Tennis trading session (case study) / Trading tip / Students

Hello traders, Yesterday i was trading Ebden vs Baghdatis. Baghadatis looked very fat and and ebden looked very consistent on the first games. We all said that Bag price was very low @ +-1.44 (cant remeber the price) but because we are in the beginning of the season, its better to wait some games to see players' performance. Wait for a good entry. Ebden broke and he had one game left to complete the set.  We are all +- with 30% and i decided to stay and the students asked me why i would do that? Why to risk 30 % thinking in the second set? Well, in my opinion it was a good trading opportunity to stay for the second set and see player's performance because like i said Bag looked out of form and fat and Ebden was with great stats. I told my students to leave the match because they look for more consistent profits since they are learning and i was a bit more agressive. Conclusion: Ebden let Bag have 3 bps on the last game with 100% and 75 % stats and then Ebden saved them all and hold for the set. I got out at break point for a very small red. Conclusion: Frustration ? No, in the long term i will be in profit because i was looking for a profit of +100% and in my opinion the probability was on my side considering the indicators. It's not a question of greed, it's just watching very good opportunities considering the indicators. Bag went to win the match but had to work a lot and it was not easy.
So some things you can try to develop:

- Follow your intuition but only when you have very good chances, not simple chances. Dont follow it many times while learning. Be careful risking money in this trading style, because you can get frustrated losing money, if so you have to work on that and take more consistent profits and risk less.
- Be agressive with greens and play safe with reds.
- Check stats.
- Dont get frustrated with short term unlucky.
- Leave unpredictable matches.

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Trading tip

If you already have a very good day, trade with lower stakes. You will be tired in the end of the day and your focus will not be the same so its better to lower stakes if you already have a great day and you if dont feel 100 % but want to continue trading (trading after work for example).

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I am very happy that the special offer allowed a lot of people to be a member of students blog and for the readers interested email me to babypuntz@gmail.com if you have questions or add me on skype like many readers did.
If you have questions about tennis and other sports feel free to email too.



good trades
r9

Darts trading/ Trading tip

Hello guys, trading Darts World Championship
Unfortunately Lloyd was better in the decisive moments and there was not a surprise.
Some matches coming later so why dont you try it?
I basically look for the player with more consistency to trade. I prefer matches with big favorites because big swings are not so probable and you can use bigger stakes with less risk, normally. It's important to choose the matches that suit your style.

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Trading tip-
know when to exit - for example,
in tennis you have a favorite that wins the first set and breaks in the second with four games left to win the second set @ 1.03.  I see many people that stay just for the three ticks and that is very bad especially in low rank wta.
Basically, a good exit point is when your player has to do a lot just to win a very small number of ticks. Learn to identify these situations.
Nba can be another example. if your team is 12 points ahead and it is not a strong favorite and the price is already very low and if there are 2 and a half quarters left to play, maybe, leaving its a good decision. Because  the price is already low and the other team can comeback very easilly because some teams tend to relax when they have a good advantage.

good trades
r9
babypuntz@gmail.com
skype: richard.nine