Exit point when laying/Nba finals/Free time

Hello,  today i would like to talk about exit points when we lay low odds. I had the idea to write about this topic cause today when i was talking in Ts' chatroom someone that layed low odds said that he shouldnt wait for the break but he waited and lost one good op to get a very good profit cause the player didnt break.

Imagine the favourite wins the first set and you are confident that the non fav has some chances of winning the second.

The non fav starts serving in the second and we lay the fav @ 1.16 (for ex)
He wins the serv game and we are almost sure he will have a break op in the fav serv game.
He gets 15.40 and fav odd reaches 1,4. The idea here is to show you that there isnt value in waiting for the break in the long term.

if you think for example that the non fav has a chance to win the match and you put all the profit in him and lets say if the non fav breaks the fav odd would get 1,5.

So you will risk 599 euros in the non fav just to win more 80 with the break? Whats the value in that? This is just one example of many. There are good points to exit 0.15 0.30 for example. Its just a question of measuring your confidence in the player and choose the right one. Every match is different. This is just an intro to this topic. Do your homework and get better.

And if you say waiting for the break has a lot of value cause then you will stay with the the non fav in his serv game to get 3.0 in the second set and get a huge swing ill respect but ill say to you that there are many favs that comeback in the second set and that in the long term you will probably not profit the same i will and you will get exposed more time = more trouble can come. Im starting to have 2k responsabilities lately. If u had 2k responsability what would you choose?  You would not play with a lot of risk. Thats the right choice.


Nba finalssss!!! King James !! Dirk Nowitzki. 30 minutes left to the first game. In my opinion Miami will win the Finals but i saw some god mode performances from Dirk and Dallas has a very good bench. Will not be easy. Enjoy it!

Video: Epic comeback from Miami heat to win the series against the bulls.

Free time section for this week

I would like to watch the Hangover part II. I watched the first one and liked a lot. Im honest, its not one of those epic movies but its very entertaining. I expect the same for the second and the imdb's rate for it is 7.1/10, its very good.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1411697/

"Right after the bachelor party in Las Vegas, Phil, Stu, Alan, and Doug jet to Thailand for Stu's wedding. Stu's plan for a subdued pre-wedding brunch, however, goes seriously awry."

Hope you liked to read this post.
Comments would be very welcome.

r9
babypuntz@gmail.com

Kings/Fast and furious 5

Hello,

Great tennis in madrid open. Im expecting a great Roland Garros. I hope Del Potro gets healthy in time.
This week's post i would like to talk about kings. Nadal is the clay's king but he lost to Djokovic. Djokovic is in a very good run and heading to #1. The match was great and there was a lot of value in the game, especially near the end of the first set when the market was believing a lot in a nadal's comeback but Djoko was consistent. The between-leg-lob point from Nadal was huge.


 On the other hand there is king James in the nba that made a spectacular performance @ boston  against the celtics and miami is now leading 3-1 in the series. In the other game the thunder team came from the dead to win the game. Memphis was dominating and with a good lead but lost it and wasted a good op. That is the difference between the good teams and the best teams. They cant waste ops like that.

Today i would like to recommend the new fast and furious' movie. This one is my favourite from all the fast and furious' movies. How would i describe it? Girls, great cars, action, scenarios in the slums of Rio de janeiro, Brazil. Basically its 130 minutes of entertainment.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1596343/

good trades

r9

Important tip for tennis/nba/Great tv episodes to watch

Hello,

Today i would like to share one important rule in my trading:

"Never wait for the second break"


I dont care if im laying or backing, i simply never wait for the second break. To me its a very important rule cause if you dont follow it you can get in a very greedy situation. You will want to earn a lot but in the end you can not profit from it. Its a sinple rule, so try it and you will get better results in the long term. There are exceptions of course.

Example:
I enter in a 15.40. The player breaks and i think he has a got a good % for being sucessful in his serv game so ill wait for his service game. He wins it. I close with the profit in the player leading and hedge in the final of the set. There are other scenarios. I dont wait with the position open expecting other break that probably will not happen.

Great playoffs in the nba!! Who would imagine dallas leading 2-0 against the lakers ?? The signs were there. In the other side Lebron James and Wade were on fire and are now are leading 2-0 against the celtics. Thunders against memphis will be very interesting to watch and atlanta will face a difficult time against the bulls unless rose's injury gets worse or they shoot more then 50% succesful  most of the nights.

If you are looking for great tv series to watch, i would like to recommend you one.
The Tv serie's name is "The walking dead" and here is the a small summary:
"Police officer Rick Grimes leads a group of survivors in a world overrun by zombies."
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1520211/

Good trades

r9