Hello, today i would like to talk about exit points when we lay low odds. I had the idea to write about this topic cause today when i was talking in Ts' chatroom someone that layed low odds said that he shouldnt wait for the break but he waited and lost one good op to get a very good profit cause the player didnt break.
Imagine the favourite wins the first set and you are confident that the non fav has some chances of winning the second.
The non fav starts serving in the second and we lay the fav @ 1.16 (for ex)
He wins the serv game and we are almost sure he will have a break op in the fav serv game.
He gets 15.40 and fav odd reaches 1,4. The idea here is to show you that there isnt value in waiting for the break in the long term.
if you think for example that the non fav has a chance to win the match and you put all the profit in him and lets say if the non fav breaks the fav odd would get 1,5.
So you will risk 599 euros in the non fav just to win more 80 with the break? Whats the value in that? This is just one example of many. There are good points to exit 0.15 0.30 for example. Its just a question of measuring your confidence in the player and choose the right one. Every match is different. This is just an intro to this topic. Do your homework and get better.
And if you say waiting for the break has a lot of value cause then you will stay with the the non fav in his serv game to get 3.0 in the second set and get a huge swing ill respect but ill say to you that there are many favs that comeback in the second set and that in the long term you will probably not profit the same i will and you will get exposed more time = more trouble can come. Im starting to have 2k responsabilities lately. If u had 2k responsability what would you choose? You would not play with a lot of risk. Thats the right choice.
Nba finalssss!!! King James !! Dirk Nowitzki. 30 minutes left to the first game. In my opinion Miami will win the Finals but i saw some god mode performances from Dirk and Dallas has a very good bench. Will not be easy. Enjoy it!
Video: Epic comeback from Miami heat to win the series against the bulls.
Free time section for this week
I would like to watch the Hangover part II. I watched the first one and liked a lot. Im honest, its not one of those epic movies but its very entertaining. I expect the same for the second and the imdb's rate for it is 7.1/10, its very good.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1411697/
"Right after the bachelor party in Las Vegas, Phil, Stu, Alan, and Doug jet to Thailand for Stu's wedding. Stu's plan for a subdued pre-wedding brunch, however, goes seriously awry."
Hope you liked to read this post.
Comments would be very welcome.
r9
babypuntz@gmail.com
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