Some minutes ago (1pm) i was trading Rybarikova against Gajdosova. It was 5.2 for Ryba and Gaj held to 5.3 saving two bps and broke to 5.4. She has the mumentum, and i expect a lot of people to go in her to hold for the 5.5. But for me was a very bad position, lets see why:
When it was 5.4 if you add Gaj first serv points and 2nd serv points was near 100% and her first serv was going in near 50%. Her price was around 1.9 (cant remember very well) but in the worst case (gaj holds) we would lose 10-20 ticks and in the best case (ryba breaks) we would win around 40-60 ticks. What position would you take? i backed Ryba . She broke to 0. This is not going to happen all the time but the value was very good looking at the stats and in the long term you will win.
Just one example.
edit: I forgot to say that the position was good because Gaj was having a lot of trouble in all her serv games. If she wasnt maybe the position was not very good to take.
good trades guys
if you liked the post comment
email: babypuntz@gmail.com
r9
Hello,
ResponderEliminarWhat do you think about using stats to prepare a match, for example, looking to some kind of plays that a player X execute well and the player Y doesn't execute well, for example break points? If a player X have a high % of saving breakpoints and the player Y have a low % of breakpoints won. This could be a place to take advantage? Or Breakpoints depends so much from the players and the "moment" of the game, that stats doesn't matter?
I saw that you start trading 2 years ago, did you have any kind of knowledge of tennis before? I'm thinking about restarting trading tennis but i'm not an expert on tennis! Did you think its a bad move?
Hello João, thanks for the comment.
ResponderEliminarI usually dont look much at stats to prepare the match. I am more concerned with current form(consistency), h2h and injuries. I prefer individual match stats that you can get using atpworldtour live scores because every match is different. In my trading style i use stats frequently. Situations where i apply it:
15.40 strat - its not good to go against big servs or players with very good stats. Depends of the "moment" of the players.
looking for break in wta. I use a lot of stats in here like in the example.
Back the serv sometimes.
In the other moments i would say that stats doesnt matter for me at least. Its always about the "moment" in tennis but try to avoid go against very good players for a long time. That is very bad in the long term if you dont have the experience to do it.
I had 6 years of tennis classes and i usually play tennis with my friends. I had a good knowledge but it took near one year of trading to get way better. It's a good move if you have the time to do it. Trading is all about consistency and consistency requires time. If you devote two or three hours/day and make two matches/day for some months, you can get to a good level.
If you have any other question post it here.
Boas trades
r9
r9
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