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quinta-feira, 12 de janeiro de 2012

Reading a match: Example of intuition on tennis with short term unlucky/ Guidance packages



Match:
Barthel vs Kerber

There was a possible injury for kerber so her start price was 1.86. I dont like to put money on players with " possible injuries", so i was just looking at opportunities to enter in Barthel. Barthel started very well and made the break and continued to play very well and i got a price around 1.8 in her. She was dominating and kerber was not very interested and very slow. GSlam coming ;P ?  Conclusion : Barthel won 6.0 the first set and her price was at 1.16. I was near 55 % and was not going to risk it for 16 ticks with no value. When there is a 6.0 there is always the chance of retirement but kerber did not retire and she started the second set very well and solid, so i backed her with my 54 %. Kerber broke and held and i got out for near 100 %.
Kerber was holding but it was easy to notice that barthel was not very consistent at that moment but if she get the previous level she would break back probably. Intuition working. Barthel, with a break behind holds the game very well and looks like she found some consistency again. I backed her here and got out at 40.15 and she recovered to deuce and broke!! Unlucky!! I would be in +150% green but ended with 75 %.
Conclusion: i risked 20-25 % risking the profit in good opportunities with the probability in my side in my opinion.

Tips:
In a dangerous match like this with a possible injury trade from second set with profits only and avoid third set.
Avoid entering in an "injured" player and look for ops on the other player.

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The traders that emailed me for guidance packages and i said that we can start in the middle of this month, can start emailing me again if you are interested to start planning your journey. I will just guide three students max because it requires a lot of effort.


r9

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