Today i bring you a study case that is very interesting for many reasons.
The first reason is that Halep was playing. One of mine core trading principles is to trade players that i know much better. Other core and very profitable principle is to trade matches from players that i am reading very well at the moment and to trade those players if they are in a very good mumentum and follow all the path of that players in the tournament.
I have been following Halep in the current wta tournament in Italy since the first match and this is one example of player that you want to follow. She was playing agressive and with consistency. In the long term, you win many many times following these players.
Let's take a look now at a third set trading example:
I was in profit already, so i was very comfortable at entering in riskier entries.
In this case, i felt in the third set that halep was a bit underpriced and that could be a consequence of her performance so far in the tournment, that like i said was very good.
Halep starts serving in the third set.
30.30
I said. "Perfect". The market can collapse right now because it is very confident in halep and because Jankovic was starting to make error after error, but if you took a closer look, in my opinion she was not caring about the points, so technically, she was resting. (that could generate problems too for Jankovic)
So in this case the graphs are perfect to show a possible collapse. In the left side of the graph the market collapses two times. So i had an indication of how many ticks i was going to win on the trade. Maybe from 2.7 to 1.6 if Jankovic breaks, and i would lose around from 2.7 to max 3.3 ticks if Halp holds.
So, what's the percentage of holding in 30.30 for Halep. 60%/40%? less?
Anyway this was a trade with huge value in my opinion. Jankovic Broke and the market collapsed like in the first half of the graph. Lucky? No. This happens a lot of times, but like i said i usually just like to enter in very risky positions when i am already in green zone. It depends in your trading style. I am comfortable with that.
Very profitable game. After that break i had to go and closed the trades for a very good profit. When i returned home i had a big surprise when i noticed that Halep won the match.
So there is another lesson to be learned here for the new traders. Close the trades when the trade does not have more value. How can i see that? If your player has to win a lot of games just to win some ticks. You must be out when that happen for value purposes, but of course, like some Top financial traders say, you must know when to break the rules but always respecting money management, that's very important too.
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I hope you liked this post. Any questions just email or leave a comment
good trades
r9
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