radwanska x jovanovski
The first game of the day for me and entered late in the game, thing that i rarely do, but in this case I watched some games of the third set and at some point though the lay in the fav at that point got some value (1.14) and layed the favorite. I was in profit and could be huge if the non favorite held with a 40.30. She didn’t. Hedged for a small loss. Stayed a bit out of the trades and watched the game going on and spotted a good op for favorite win the set and she won.
Sorry for not putting player’s name in this text cause it was early and can’t remember most of it lol.
Noppawan x Kremer
Kremer started a little slow and noppawan dominated the first games and then kremer started playing. Layed Kremer when the game was very balanced and koppawan seemed to be fresher. Got out as soon as I saw a reaction by kremer, backed her and stayed a bit in the tie break with the money in her cause she was more experienced and seemed to do the right things in the right moments. As soon as she got the mini break I put a free bet in her and left the game because there was a lot of noise in the room where I was trading and I can’t trade with a lot of noise so stayed out of the game but checked the score occasionally. In my opinion Noppawan could have won the game if she got more experience because the match was very balanced and kremer’s experience was the key.
My tip here is if you are starting trading tennis avoid 3rd set of players that you are not sure about, especially in wta, with all those breaks. Try to read the match and the players’ attitude in every set.
Errari x Arn
This was the game of the day. As I am writing the players are still playing in the third set. Arn started the game really well and got some bps and missed them all so I backed errani hoping that arn had some frustration. Errani broke. I knew that the next game would be a big fight but stayed cause arn should be feeling a little of frustration and Errani held and broke again. Thought the set was over but in the next errani serv game arn managed to be with a 0.30 and I got out with 200€ in both cause arn could react and the price only had moved 5 ticks from the initial price in the beginning of the game so there was some value in hedging at that point. I went to see a football game that im going to talk about and when I returned I see a 6.5 for arn and errani with a price of 1.3. My head started to think about it and I found a lot of reasons to put all my green in arn. She played very well in her last game, she was caring about the set and she broke errani serv sometimes, so why not, 1.3 seems very good? So I was with –8 € in errani and 800 € in arn. Arn managed to get a 15.40 in errani serv game but missed both set points and I was like, “Will be very difficult , she needs a good mindset now”, So I decide to wait for the conclusion of that game. If she had lose that game and result was 6.6 I would got out outherwise I would think about third set. Arn still broke broke after several misses.Third set. Errani price was between 1.6 – 1.7. And I thought, if arn held in the 3rd set the first serv game(just two points were necessary) that was the first game of the set the market would go crazy and I could hedge 400 in both. And arn was confident and so it happened. Backed 400 @ 2 and got 400 € in both. Checked now that Arn won the game. Big overturn. That second set made her confident. Mental side is the key almost in every wta game.
Today to make a different post I’m going to talk about a football match between my club Benfica and Sporting( it’s the most important game here in Portugal). Benfica was a big favorite with a price of 1.6 . Sporting scored first with a lucky goal and Benfica was very passive in the game. Three defenders from Sporting got a yellow card and benfica started to get some intensity so I layed Sporting for 500 €. Penalty for benfica some minutes later. I said to my dad that the player (Cardozo-you may know him for missing a penalty against spain representing Paraguay in the world cup) would miss the penalty lol. He missed the penalty and the goalkeeper saved for corner. And I was like, “FFs, the couch should choose another player for the penalties, always the same thing”. Missing a penalty is always bad mentally for a team. In the corner the player that missed the penalty scored with the head! lolol. Benfica has a very good squad, better than Sporting, was dominating and the crowd was with the team. The score was 1.1 at the halftime. Benfica missed a lot of goals in the second time and sporting had some dangerous chances so I decided to leave the game with 350 in both in minute 75 of the game. Benfica scored in the last minute of the extra time that will let them reach the final for the league’s trophy. Crazy game.
Hope u liked the text
r9
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