Today i will talk about just one topic and i will discuss the other topics in the coming posts.
I hope you like the post and that you comment this post if possible.
I had the idea to write this post after watching a video about nba some months ago.
Basically, in that video, the owner of a nba team (Mark Cuban) went to a tv show to finally tell the reporters that that psychological issues that some nba teams suffer, like stress, pressure and other are just myths. He says that teams don't know nothing about that. They are just professionals, and they don't care about reporters opinions. So, in conclusion, the reporters create some psychological issues like pressure to justify some results, when pressure is not the thing, and it was team planning in Mark's opinion.
Video:
This topic is very important to tennis markets. I personally take a lot of decisions based on player's pressure.
Markets tend to be wrong in those situations because emotions come to play when pressure comes too.
But sometimes we overtrade in these kind of indicators
So, have you ever had that feeling that you are "sure" that one girl is going to break in the next game and the other player wins the game to love, or that one favorite is going to lose and from nothing he goes to win easily.
So, what i want to say is that sometimes we use psychological indicators to justify our decisions based on patterns and we create a habit of using it for everything and that habit is destructive.
This post is basically a warning/alert for you. The solution to the problem is to create better profiles about players and everything else and trade more matches between players that we know very well. If we trade matches with players that we don't know very well, stay with traditional patterns and system. Special attention to low rank wta. That matches can get crazy and out of control very very fast with a lot of different mumentums.
In conclusion: Don't use psychological indicators always even if it looks like a situation for it. Choose well your trades. It's like poker. Play the best hands. Skip the others.
good trades
r9
Excelente post ricardo. Pelas razões que enumeraste que eu quase exclusivamente faço trading entre jogadores/as do top 20/30: conheço bem os jogadores e sei que os jogos são mais estáveis e consistentes, não há tanta tendência para haver loucuras como nos jogos de baixo ranking.
ResponderEliminarUm abraço e bom resto de época
Great post...
ResponderEliminarAbout what Cuban said, we all know he has a big mouth and is not a prudent guy... He has his points though, but it is not all that black or white in my opinion.
Basketball is a team sport so that makes it very different to tennis where there is no one else out there but you.
That said, I think pressure and psychology play a part in the game, but as you said I've countless times overtraded based on that.
What I do is I have certain strategies. When one of those situations show up I first of all evaluate which price is offered. If it is too high (in relation to the players confronting), I won't take it, don't care about anything else. If price is right I look deeper on to who are playing and then make a decission based on what I know about them. I am willing to enter on Nadal on a difficult situation, not so much if it is Verdasco... ;).
I think one of the best things I've learned from trading is that there's no need to do all the possible opportunities, it's better just to seize the best ones. Or in other words: quality over quantity, as in the rest of things of life.
The thing about trading is that it is difficult to evaluate and balance many many factors: quality, mentality, momentum, time remaining, match situation, court, health... it's fascinating to me (and frustrating sometimes!).
Cheers!
Very good!
ResponderEliminarCan you post some of your results on football as well some of your strategies?
Thanks!
Thanks for the comments guys
ResponderEliminar@João yes, consistency is the key. Consistency and value : )
@Cobo yes, the basketball analogy was not very good because it's a team match. Just a simple way to explain my point. We have to give some credit to Cuban. He is a self-made millionaire and won a ring, but yes, he speaks a lot lol. About tennis, yes we have to evaluate many factors and for that we need a lot of awareness. Btw, you gave an idea for a post ;P
@third comment. I will make a post about football when i feel that i am providing some value. Don't expect strategies, just ideas. Don't give them fish, teach them to fish.